By Mitchell Park (@park30news) — Spear Reporter | San Jose State defensive line lines up against Cal Poly on Sept. 13 (Photo by Cesar Maya – Spear Photographer).
San Jose State football coaches say Saturday’s game against Fresno State is like any other. They don’t make the annual rivalry matchup between the Spartans and Bulldogs as any bigger than any other game. However, some members of the coaching staff and players know the game means more.
“People wanna win this game,” SJSU head coach Ken Niumatalolo said about his coaches and support staff at Tuesday’s press conference. “It’s a big game.”
The Battle for the Valley
SJSU remains in the Mountain West Conference and Fresno State left for the Pac-12 this season. Both opened their seasons with a loss to the University of Southern California. Both come off a win over a Football Championship Subdivision opponent.
As announced earlier this week, the teams aren’t scheduled to face off again until 2029, meaning Saturday’s winner retains the Valley Trophy until then.
Fans on both sides want to see their team walk away victorious. Fresno State leads the overall series 46-39-3, with four wins in the last five games.
With low season-to-season roster retention and starters finding their footing, these are not the same teams we saw last year or last week.
The Dominating Denominator
Against common opponent USC, SJSU lost by 16 compared to Fresno State which lost by 39 without scoring. On the surface, the 23-point advantage goes to the Spartans.
This is not the full story.
In both games, USC began pulling starters in the back half of the third quarter while leading by 32 (SJSU 35-3, Fresno 32-0). SJSU made a dent on its seventh drive, pushing for 69 yards and ending on a 22-yard field goal.
In the first seven drives, Fresno State had 27 plays for 66 yards (2.4 average).
San Jose State had 38 plays for 177 yards (4.7 average).
Maiava’s Last Snap
Both offenses faced the same USC starting defense and had seven drives before USC senior quarterback Jayden Maiava left the field and reserves came on.
In the last three drives, Fresno State had 17 plays for 70 yards (4.1 average).
San Jose State had 19 plays for 178 yards (9.4 average).
On the first snap after Maiava left, USC starting safety Alex Graham recorded a sack against the Bulldogs to score via safety. Take that out, and Fresno State averaged 4.8 yards over the last 16 plays.
Fresno State’s final drive was its best. The Bulldogs moved the ball 67 yards in 10 plays (6.7 average), touching USC’s 8-yard line before turning the ball over on downs.
Against comparable defenses, SJSU had four drives over 60 yards, and its final three yielded touchdowns.
“The way our starters played, that deserved to be a single-digit-score game,” USC head coach Lincoln Riley said following the 42-26 win over SJSU.
Despite the outcome, Fresno State’s defense was the shining unit of the USC series. USC’s Maiava-led offense scored touchdowns on four of seven drives against the Bulldogs (four points allowed per drive) and five of seven against the Spartans (five points allowed per drive).
Fresno State also forced two fumbles in the same span. Both teams stopped Maiava on downs on exactly one drive.
FCS Wins Move the Scale
The FCS figures aren’t so neat. Last week, Fresno State and SJSU came out victorious against Sacramento State and Cal Poly, respectively, but Fresno State won 49-3 while SJSU sealed a 30-20 win.
SJSU was tied going into the last 12 minutes of its game. Fresno allowed its opponent one 35-yard field goal in the third quarter.
Cal Poly is 2-1, and Sacramento State is 1-2. Sac State lost 28-17 to Eastern Michigan, which lost to SJSU 27-21.
For the third game in a row, SJSU scored no first-quarter points against FCS opponent Cal Poly. Fresno State scored no first-quarter points against Sac State. Be ready for a slow start by both teams.
In summary: SJSU beat Eastern Michigan by 6. Eastern Michigan beat Sac State by 11. Sac State lost to Fresno State by 46. By that math, Fresno State has a 29-point advantage.
Prediction
Against the same USC starters, SJSU averaged 4.7 yards per play and Fresno State averaged 2.4 yards per play.
Vegas doesn’t give much credence to garbage-time points. Fresno State is favored by 6.5 points, more than I’m willing to give. It’s true USC had time to fix its Week 0 defense, but even then, the Spartans trend positive game by game.
The Spartans have a better defense compared with 2025, an offense with chemistry that seemingly grows each minute the starters spend together, and a gritty student section that showed out last week against Cal Poly. That last one alone is worth a few points for the Spartans.
If Fresno State gets ahead by more than that, it will be because its tough defense that, which held Sac State to 262 yards, learned a lot from its 39-0 loss.
It’s nearly a coin flip, but I’m taking the Spartans by 3 points. I don’t believe their offense will come out as slow as it did against Cal Poly. Look how SJSU’s first-quarter possessions ended last week: a fumble, a punt, and a missed field goal. Fix two of those and we wouldn’t be having this conversation.
But if the Spartans punt their first two drives Saturday, burn this column right then and there.
