By Matt Weiner (@mattweiner20) – Spear Reporter | Photo via Christian Vieyra of The Spear
Hello and welcome to Matt’s Monday Mailbag™ your go-to destination for all pressing SJSU football matters.
Enough chit-chatting. Let’s get into it.
The Truth: @ElonforU: “Matt- Can SJSU run the table and finish 7-5? Some winnable games coming up.”
7-5? I mean let’s pump the brakes on that.
It’s funny using “pump the brakes” in the context of SJSU going 7-5 because last week I applied the phrase for fans pushing for head coach Brent Brennan to get fired.
Ah, the difference a 52-24 win can make.
Looking ahead, Utah State, Hawaii, San Diego State and UNLV are winnable games. None of those teams strike terror in me the way Air Force, No. 18 USC or No. 12 Oregon State did.
But I still have Fresno State beating SJSU – even with the game at home. I’m not confident SJSU’s defense can handle FSU quarterback Logan Fife, who’s starting for the injured Mikey Keene, or Keene himself, who’s slated to return by the end of this month.
Ricky Delgado: @RickyDe70535587: “Do you think the team is sort of finding an identity as more of a run first offense and planning to shift more to that sort of offense for the rest of the season?”
Dear heavens I hope so.
Like I said last week, I understand the appeal of going pass-heavy. SJSU has the 2023 Preseason Offensive Player of the Year in quarterback Chevan Cordeiro running the show, so why not put faith in him?
Well here’s why; he earned the high honor because people expected him to be throwing to 2023 Preseason All-Conference selection Justin Lockhart. Unfortunately, Lockhart will be sidelined for all of 2023 due to an injury. Without a top-target, Cordeiro’s shown he’s not the same guy.
Plus, SJSU doesn’t boast a robust pass-catching core. Recent quarterback-turned-wide receiver Nick Nash is the only pass-catcher with 30 catches, 250 receiving yards and multiple touchdowns (four).
Which is why SJSU should continue to feed running backs Kairee Robinson (126 rushing yards) and Quali Conley (123 rushing yards).
Last Saturday, Robinson went for 189 all-purpose yards and three of his four touchdowns came on the ground. It’s not like Robinson came out of nowhere. He entered the UNM bout averaging 5.9 yards per carry and his seven rushing touchdowns were good for second-best in the conference.
But this time around, SJSU decided to keep feeding Robinson. His 15 attempts were his most against an FBS opponent.
And there appears to be no frustration from Cordeiro.
Following the game, a smiling Cordeiro said the run-game production helped set up his 54-yard play action touchdown to Nash. With this being Cordeiro’s final season, it’d be understandable if he wasn’t gun ho. So if he’s on board and there’s better results, then why not go with it?
Matt Hamilton: @MattHamilton19: “Is our offensive line improving every week in the run game, or was New Mexico just a weak sister? I think it’s the former.”
40% former. 60% later.
UNM has allowed the third-most rushing yards per game in the conference, compared to Boise State and Air Force, which both rank in the top three. What’s more, UNM has amassed the least amount of tackles for loss in the Mountain West.
So this performance does hang primarily under a cloud of weak sister. And it’s not like SJSU’s run game was steadily improving week-by-week and then Saturday was this almighty explosion.
The Spartans’ 6.3 yards per carry, which is second-best in the conference, has remained pretty consistent. But because SJSU veers away from it when it starts trailing, the lack of total yardage makes it seem like a non-factor.
Ricky Delgado: @RickyDe70535587: “I think records, especially this year don’t matter in terms of using them to gauge opponents. Focusing on UNLV and Fresno specifically, they aren’t as dominant as their records suggest. I think we have a legit shot at going 7-5 if we play as physical as we did yesterday.”
Let’s start with “we have a legit shot at going 7-5 if we play as physical as we did yesterday,” then work our way up.
Sure, I agree, but everything goes back to who’s lined up in front of you. Because if you judge the Spartans’ physicality based on last Saturday’s win, then they’re the next Mountain West Champion. But what about a few weeks ago when SJSU allowed 400 rushing yards?
Which is why the strength of the schedule is so important to look at. I still maintain that Fresno State is good, but their “big” road Power 5 wins came against a weak, injury fraught Arizona State and Purdue which is pacing to finish at the bottom of the Big-10.
Meanwhile, UNLV is 5-1, but it has no jaw-dropping, fear-inducing wins. I’m pretty sure SJSU would share a similar record if its non-conference schedule featured Michigan, Bryant, UTEP and Vanderbilt.
A good time to remind everyone SJSU faced the potential PAC-12 Championship matchup in USC and Oregon State and a Toledo squad that’s on pace to become a back-to-back MAC Champion.
Jeffrey Carter: @JCarterSJSU83: “What adjustments do you think the SJS coaches did at halftime that actually worked this time? It was a beauty to behold.”
Yes it was beautiful compared to the previous slew of second-half eyesores.
As we’ve discussed, I think it was putting more trust into the running backs.
For example, the Spartans had 21 rush attempts in the second half compared to 11 in the first half. The result? Totaling 31 more points and accruing 219 more total yards of offense. And half of that 219 was amassed on screen passes to Robinson and Conley.
For the defensive improvement, I think Mr. Carter and fellow Spartan fans can thank defensive end Tre Smith for returning in the second half. While SJSU was on pace to allow 500 yards in the first half, Smith was busy serving his targeting suspension.
His presence played a role in mitigating big plays. For example, the Lobos had seven plays of 15-plus yards (six passes and one rush), but didn’t have any in the second half before the Spartans hung their 50-burger.
Also, can’t stress this enough, UNM isn’t in the same weight class as the previous three opponents SJSU football played.
