By Matt Weiner (@mattweiner20) – Spear Reporter | Photo via Titus Wilkinson of The Spear
When asked if he’s irked by computers dictating SJSU’s conference title hopes, head coach Brent Brennan raised his palms and said, “I just worry about what we [SJSU] can control.”
For now, that means beating UNLV at Allegiant Stadium this Saturday.
And should that happen, there will be a three-team tie for the Mountain West Championship between SJSU, UNLV and the winner of Friday afternoon’s bout between Air Force and Boise State. If it comes down to a three-team round-robin SJSU, however, will likely be left out. The reason for it, may be the same reason SJSU started 1-5: its wretched regular-season schedule.
Strength of schedule is one way computers solve a three-team tie. At the beginning of the year, this should’ve favored SJSU. After all, it opened against USC led by reigning Heisman Trophy Award winner, quarterback Caleb Williams. But the Trojans have unraveled through 2023, starting as the sixth-ranked team nationally before plummeting out of the top-25.
On top of that, SJSU faced Air Force (8-3, 5-2 MW) when its unworldly triple-option offense was at the peak of its powers. Since then, central components of that attack sustained injuries. This, of course, played a major role in its three-game losing streak: upsets via Navy (5-5, 4-3 MW) and Hawaii (4-8, 2-5 MW) and conceding a 24-7 lead at home last week against UNLV.
Lastly, the Spartans’ lone ranked win — a 42-18 thumping of No. 25 Fresno State on Nov. 11 — lost legitimacy after the Bulldogs fell to New Mexico (4-7, 2-5 MW) the following week.
Considering SJSU’s non-conference schedule also featured, No. 15 Oregon State and Toledo, a front runner for the MAC championship, the Spartans should have a stronger strength of schedule than Boise State. However, Boise State’s (6-5, 5-2 MW) “Buy Week” loss came against No. 4 Washington, a College Football Playoff dark horse.
But what’re the chances SJSU can top UNLV (9-2, 6-1 MW) in the first place? Without that, isn’t this a waste of energy? And Brennan, meanwhile, can’t notch an incentive that pays him upwards of $20K for winning a conference championship.
As of now, SJSU is a 2.5-point underdog and ESPN gave the Spartans a 41.9% chance.
In order to win, SJSU’s rushing attack needs to continue its thrashing of Mountain West defensive fronts. During the Spartans’ five-game win streak, they’ve rushed for an average of 244.2 yards per game.
Then, SJSU’s passing defense — ranked 12th nationwide — needs to silence UNLV’s patented “Go-Go” offense. UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, the engine of the “Go-Go” offense, is the conference-leader in receiving yards (1,189) and amassed at least seven catches and 140 yards in his last four games.
Silencing White and Rebels’ quarterback Jayden Maiava — a likely Mountain West Freshman of the Year — is easier said than done of course. The Rebels average the most points per game (35.9) in the Mountain West.
“They’ve done a really good job putting the right pieces of the puzzle together,” said Brennan, who’ll likely become SJSU’s first head coach to reach three bowl games.
SJSU’s defense has shown remarkable improvement over the course of 2023. In the current five-game win streak, the unit allowed just 15.2 points per game. Long gone are the days of surrendering 400 rushing yards to Air Force.
Or so it hopes.
“None of it [computer rankings] matters if we don’t play well this Saturday,” Brennan said.