Omari Moore (Photo by Max Bechtoldt)
By Matt Weiner (@MattWeiner20) – MBB Beat Reporter
“Maybe? Just maybe?” is the motto for the SJSU Spartans as they head into the Mountain West tournament as the last seed with only one conference win this year. Not many contests have been close either, with 14 of those losses coming by double-digits.
Very little evidence points to the Spartans getting past Fresno State after they lost twice this year by a total of 50. Even fewer evidence points to SJSU leaving the Thomas and Mack Center with a Mountain West title and a bid to the NCAA tournament.
With Ibrahima Diallo being active for this game the Spartans chances of winning increase exponentially as he matches up well against the NBA-hopeful Orlando Robinson who did major damage in his previous two games against the Spartans.
Who will put on the glass slipper?
Nevada poses as the perfect Cinderella team because right when it goes on a six-game losing streak, it wins three-consecutive matches followed up by four-straight losses to close out the season.
The Wolfpack will hook you in when Grant Sherfield rips off 30-burgers and Desmond Cambridge Jr. hits off-balance three’s where his spine is rounded into a cinnamon roll.
Both players reeled in an All-Mountain West third team nod for the second-straight year.
Sherfield averaged 18.5 points, four rebounds and 6.5 assists as Cambridge Jr. averaged 16.3 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.9 assists.
Center Will Baker is a defensive pillar around the hoop and his 11.7 points-per-game is the third most on the team. In the most recent one-point loss to SDSU, Baker hit major shots down the stretch when left on an island at the top of the key.
With three starters averaging double-digits that leaves only one explanation for the Wolfpack’s 6-12 conference record. Defense.
The 73.8 points and 35 percent shooting from three they allow per game is the second most in the Mountain West.
It’s a glaring hole that New Mexico will look to expose, but the Lobos’ personnel match up about as well as a square peg in a round hole.
The Lobos are led by prolific scorers in Jaelen House and Jamaal Mashburn Jr..
Mashburn Jr. has gone 6 of 24 from three in his last seven games while scoring at least 17 in every contest, but one.
House skipped to a similar tune going 10 of 30 in his last seven games while averaging 17.7 points a game.
If Mashburn Jr. and House wake up on the wrong side of the bed and have an off day while Cambridge Jr. and Sherfield strike a match and catch fire, the Wolfpack can find themselves on top.
As a wise man once said, “Anarchy? Nope. Just college basketball.”
Final four prediction
Half of my final four picks for the Mountain West tournament is chalk:
Colorado State and San Diego State.
I can drone on and on about Colorado State vindicating their snub from the NCAA tournament last year by formulating the best offense in the Mountain West. Selfless play from Mountain West player of the year David Roddy, great ball movement, a tendency to close out ball games like Mariano Rivera. Blah blah blah.
Or I could just show you this:
Head coach Nico Medved has kept the Rams locked in at the end of games leading to multiple wins decided by a couple decisions.
SDSU is coming off of its hottest week of the year beating Wyoming 73-66 on Monday, Fresno State 65-64 in double overtime on Thursday and beating Nevada 79-78 on March 5.
Aztecs lethal-lefty Matt Bradley went on a tear averaging 26.7 points and shooting 42% from three ultimately earning himself a National Player of the Week honors from ESPN.
Along with Bradley, the Aztecs have the second most efficient defense in the nation according to Kenpom that includes the Mountain West defensive player of the year in Nathan Mensah.
Any team that finds itself caught in the teeth of the Aztecs full court press is leaving in shreds.
Ask somebody if Wyoming will be one of the four teams remaining in the Mountain West tournament a month ago and the answer is unequivocally yes.
However, now the confidence has dropped to a light maybe.
Led by center Graham Ike and guard Hunter Maldonando, the Pokes got off to an incredible start on the year winning 21 of their first 24 games, yet have run into some struggles ending the season at a 3-4 clip.
Some momentum was lost, but after ending the season on an OT win against Fresno State, the machine could be back up and running.
Wyoming draws UNLV in the first round and if it stops Running Rebels leading-scorer Bryce Hamilton, then it’ll be on a road toward victory.
Fourth and final pick is Nevada because why not introduce some anarchy to the mix.
It has two scorers in Cambridge Jr. and Sherfield who can unload the clip on any team and push them into the win column.
All tournament team
Grant Sherfield – Nevada
Grant Sherfield has the hot hand and is coming off of an incredible 30-point performance against one of the best defenses in the country in San Diego State. The Wolfpack goes where he goes and if he scrapes a couple wins together while scoring at least 23 per game then that spot belongs to him
Matt Bradley – San Diego State
Matt Bradley enters the tournament as the hottest player in the conference and one of the most versatile players in college basketball. He has the strength to compete with Wyoming’s Graham Ike down low while having the raw shooting ability to solve any problem that the Aztecs have.
Abu Kigab – Boise State
I’m launching a hail mary by not considering Boise State to finish top four, but if it does, then it will have Kigab’s fingerprints all over the final product. He’s been the leading scorer for the Broncos with 14.7 points and a difference maker anytime the ball is in his hands.
Graham Ike – Wyoming
Ike took a huge step in 2021-22 raising his scoring average from 11.2 to 19.9 in the span of one year. While Ike’s listed at six-foot-nine, his giant arms make him seem like he’s a seven-footer.
This simple post fade illustrates how Ike can get shots over anyone and them at a high rate. With Hunter Maldonando receiving tons of attention up top, keep an eye out for Ike to take advantage of one-on-one matchups down low.
David Roddy – Colorado State
Roddy is going to make the all tournament team and rise up as the player of the tournament. He’s coming off a Mountain West player of the year win and is one of the most complete big men imaginable.
Need a pull up mid-range jumper?
Need a drive to the rim?
Need a spot-up three from a big who’s shooting 46% from three on the year?
He’s got you covered on all facets of the game and poses an immediate threat to anyone wearing a different jersey that finds themselves on the same court as him.
Tournament MVP
David Roddy is expected to put on a show better than anything you’d find on the strip whether it’s David Copperfield, Brad Garret or some random magician you’ve never heard of.
He’s the embodiment of mass carnage in the post and has a crossover that will go from right to left and once a defender realizes what hit him, all they can do is stare at the back of his jersey.