Matt Weiner (@mattweiner20) – Basketball Beat Reporter
Larry Bird wasn’t an NBA champion the last time SJSU men’s basketball started a season 9-4.
Yes … it’s been that long.
While a historic beginning merits praise and acknowledgement, it will fall on deaf ears if the Spartans fail to make any noise in conference play which kicks off against a stout UNLV (11-1).
The Runnin Rebels begin Mountain West play at 52 in the NET rankings while the Spartans come in at 125.
Know your foe
On Oct. 19, the Mountain West Preseason coaches poll saw UNLV coming in at sixth.
Fast-forward to Dec. 28 and that could be a wild miscalculation as the Runnin Rebels finished non-conference play with the second best winning percentage (.917) in the Mountain West.
Their victory over Southern Mississippi is the only win over a team in the top 75 of the NET Rankings. However, they have handled business with ease, putting away teams by an average of 15.5 points (second in conference and 20th nationwide).
While they score the third-most points per game in the conference (78.2), no individual is top six in the following categories;
Scoring, rebounding, field goal percentage, three-point percentage or three-pointers per game.
Elijah Harkless, a fourth-year transfer from Oklahoma, is the team’s leading scorer (15.5 points per game) and has caught fire recently, scoring 19, 21 and 20 points in his last three contests.
Impressive, but far from anything gaudy.
But if you’re looking for gaudy, then take one look at how many turnovers they force per game.
UNLV’s 21.33 forced turnovers per game stands at most in the nation and most in the conference by five (SDSU averages 16.3). Which includes a whopping 25 in its most recent win over Southern Miss.
Luis Rodriguez (2.6), Keshon Gilbert (2.2) and Harkless (1.5) are all top-10 in the Mountain West in steals per game.
Just a quick side bar — UNLV has dealt with massive airline travel issues. This gives SJSU a massive advantage since players have been sleeping in their own beds since traveling to Arkansas on Dec. 3.
Spartan check up
It’s a surprise to no one that fourth-year guard Omari Moore has propelled SJSU men’s basketball to its best start since the 1980-81 season.
In order to match and/or rewrite records of old, SJSU’s offense needs to improve as the Spartans average the second-least points per game (68.8).
Luckily, they can shoot up to the top half of the Mountain West in that category if they do one simple thing:
Make their free throws.
SJSU is shooting a conference-worst 66% from the line. Which is especially tough since they’ve totaled the second-lowest amount of attempts this year.
In the Spartans biggest win of the year – an upset over Santa Clara – they made 16 of 20 and went 12-13.
But in their most embarrassing loss of the year – a one point loss to Pacific following a blown 15-point second half lead – they went three of seven.
The likes of Ibrahima Diallo, Sage Tolbert and Robert Vaihola still have to out rebound UNLV and control the paint, but its the smallest of facets where SJSU needs to hit pay dirt.
Moreover, second-year guard MJ Amey has shown promise in the second rotation, scoring at least eight in his last three games and went for 10 in the Spartans recent win over Cal Poly.
The timeline for his scoring aligns with him fully recovering from an ankle injury that sidelined him and put him on a pitch count this season.
Win the turnover battle to win the war
SJSU is on the upswing, but it doesn’t mean they don’t have faults opposing teams can expose.
Look no further than the turnover margin.
The Spartans’ -4.77 turnover margin is worst in the Mountain West by a substantial margin – Air Force is second worst and theirs is -.38.
It seems small, but could be extremely impactful as the Runnin Rebels are second in the Mountain West and 20th in the nation in fast break points with 16.08 per game.
It’s a safe bet that UNLV will win the turnover war, but if SJSU averages their 12.6 turnovers per game, they’ll have a fighting chance at an early-season court storm.
However, it’ll be an early crowd walk out if things begin to get sloppy in the second half (hint hint Arkansas blowout) and UNLV starts putting on one of its patented highlight reels.
Quick stats
- Since joining the Mountain West in 2013, the Spartans have failed to win more than eight conference games and have won three or less on seven occasions.
- SJSU men’s basketball is 6-45 all time against UNLV
- SJSU’s last win against UNLV came in 2017 on a last-second shot by Terrell Brown