By Matt Weiner (@mattweiner20) – Spear Reporter | Photo via Titus Wilkinson of The Spear
Hello and welcome to Matt’s Monday Mailbag™, your go-to destination for all pressing SJSU football matters.
Enough chit-chatting. Let’s get into it.
Ricky Delgado @RickyDe70535587: “To my understanding, we need Boise to beat Air Force for us to get in the ship. Us and BSU are tied in average computer rankings so if we both win, it would give us a real shot. If Air Force beats Boise, I sadly think we don’t get in. Does that sound right? Lol Fresno btw.”
Steven M Sandoval @stevo033: “What is the way we get into the MW championship? Obviously we need to beat UNLV next week, but are we hoping for a Boise State loss or Air Force loss?”
Assuming SJSU beats UNLV there are two scenarios:
Scenario 1: Air Force beats Boise State Friday afternoon
- This creates a three-way tie between SJSU (7-5, 6-2 MW), Air Force (9-3, 6-2 MW) and UNLV (9-3, 6-2 MW).
- SJSU has a tiebreaker over UNLV (head-to-head win) but doesn’t have the tiebreaker over Air Force (head-to-head loss).
- Moreover, UNLV holds the tiebreaker over Air Force.
- This means it’ll head to computers or ranking systems such as this one from Jeff Anderson & Chris Hester. For those familiar with college basketball, it’s similar to Kenpom.
- SJSU (72) is behind Air Force (55) and way behind UNLV (31).
- SJSU is far behind because it has more overall losses than Air Force. Which can be frustrating for SJSU fans because its non-conference schedule featured USC, No. 15 Oregon State and Toledo (10-1, 7-0 MAC). Meanwhile, Air Force played Sam Houston State (2-9, 1-6 C-USA) and Navy (5-5, 4-3).
Scenario 2: Boise State beats Air Force Friday afternoon
- This creates a three-way tie between SJSU (7-5, 6-2 MW), Boise State (7-5, 6-2 MW) and UNLV (9-3, 6-2 MW).
- Boise State holds the tiebreaker over SJSU (head-to-head win), but Boise State hasn’t played UNLV
- Computers have Boise State (71) one spot above SJSU
- Boise State may remain higher because it’ll have a win over an opponent SJSU lost to (Air Force).
Ricky Delgado @RickyDe70535587: “Matt, I just gotta say what a turnaround from the team man. Looking at their schedule to start the year I was thinking we go 3-3 in the first half and when we didn’t, it was disappointing. But they sure stormed back and in convincing fashion. Here’s hoping they beat UNLV.”
Honestly, I didn’t think SJSU could become bowl eligible after it fell to 1-5.
Yes, I was wrong. But I take comfort in knowing many of you did, too. It was only logical. After all, SJSU surrendered double-digit leads three games in a row and at least 28 unanswered points in back-to-back weeks.
Since then, the defense has dizzied opposing offensive coordinators and SJSU running backs Kairee Robinson and Quali Conley have helped SJSU outscore opponents 195-76 during its five-game win streak.
And now a conference championship game is … within striking distance?
*insert the Paul Rudd Hot Wings “Hey, look at us” meme here*
The Truth @ElonforU: “Matt- What a turnaround! Do we beat UNLV next week?”
That’s the million-dollar question, right?
I think SJSU will beat UNLV because of its recent penchant for closing games. The Spartans outscored opponents 108-25 in the second half during its five-game winning streak.
But I’m not overly confident in my pick because of UNLV wide receiver Ricky White, who just became the first player in program history to post four consecutive 100-yard receiving games in one season. Without him, UNLV wouldn’t have rallied back from a 24-7 deficit to beat Air Force 31-27.
Ricky Delgado: @RickyDe70535587 “Love how they didn’t abandon the run game which they could have easily done. In the first half rushing yards were hard to come by but they broke through in the second. Night and day from earlier in the season to now. Earlier in the year they would’ve let the run go completely.”
Facts.
In last Saturday’s win, Conley had 28 total rushing yards when SJSU took over on its 8-yard line with 8:57 to go while up 17-13. He then proceeded to amass 127 yards, 57 of which came on a single play. When adding Robinson’s production SJSU rushed for 137 yards in the fourth quarter.
Not bad considering SJSU rushed for a combined eight yards in the fourth quarter during its losses to Boise State and Toledo.
Jeffrey Carter @JCarterSJSU83: “The Aztecs found a way to slow down the Spartans’ offense. Another team with a good offense could use the same formula (UNLV). What does SJSU need to do on O and D to gain more TOP and plays?”
I think time of possession and total plays can be misleading.
SDSU ran 16 more plays and held onto the ball for 11 more minutes but still lost to SJSU by 11 points.
The more important aspect for SJSU is to control the clock and finish drives. Be it scoring touchdowns or forcing field goals. Particularly because UNLV scores the most points per game (35.9) in the Mountain West.